Poll Results: How Trump’s Legal Issues Could Shake Up 2024 Race

Poll Results: How Trump’s Legal Issues Could Shake Up 2024 Race

President Biden’s reelection prospects might see a significant shift if former President Donald Trump faces legal repercussions ahead of the 2024 election, as revealed by an exclusive poll shared with The Post. The survey conducted by Leger indicates that Trump, aged 77, could lose his one-point lead over Biden, aged 81, if found guilty of any of the 88 criminal charges he currently faces. In such a scenario, all of Trump’s existing support would move to undecided voters rather than siding with the incumbent.

If Trump were to be convicted and imprisoned, only 37% of Americans would vote for him, whereas 39% would do so if he is convicted but avoids prison time. Interestingly, 18% of respondents remained undecided, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding a potential Trump conviction.

On the other hand, Biden would see no increase in potential voters if Trump were to face conviction and imprisonment. In both cases of Trump’s legal outcomes, a substantial portion of respondents expressed uncertainty about their voting preferences.

Among Republicans, 15% of respondents indicated they would become undecided if Trump were found guilty and imprisoned. The poll also indicated that some Republican voters would consider shifting their support to Biden under certain legal circumstances.

Trump, currently undergoing trial in Manhattan for multiple charges including business fraud related to hush money payments during the 2016 election, faces a mixed response from the public. A notable portion of respondents expressed low engagement with the ongoing trial proceedings.

Despite the legal cloud hanging over Trump, the poll shows a potential widening of his lead in a five-way race involving Biden and other independent candidates. In such a scenario, Trump would secure 41% of the vote, with Biden receiving 38% support. However, Biden’s approval ratings continue to face challenges, with 51% disapproving of his performance as president.

In a positive light for Biden, a majority of respondents rated their household finances favorably. Additionally, concerns about job security varied among Americans, with 56% not fearing job loss in the coming year.

Economic perspectives among respondents painted a mixed picture, with a significant proportion still perceiving the US to be in an economic recession. Despite the economic concerns, Biden’s approval ratings saw a slight improvement compared to previous surveys.

Leger carried out the online survey from April 26 to 28, polling 1,008 US adults with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.09%. The evolving dynamics of Trump’s legal battles and how they intersect with public opinion will likely continue to influence the political landscape as the 2024 election approaches.


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